The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is currently influenced by several layers of factors: central bank policy, geopolitics, stock market reactions, and the internal dynamics of the crypto market. Autumn is coming to an end, and the market is entering the final phase of the post-halving 2024 cycle. November could become a turning month — either upward or downward.
In this material, Quickex examines which forces will be pressing on BTC and which ones will be supporting it in the coming weeks. We’ve summarized the results of the analysis in the Bitcoin forecast for November 2025.
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A Typical November for Bitcoin
Historically, November is one of the strongest months for Bitcoin. On average, over the past 15 years, BTC has gained around 36% in November. In 11 out of 15 observed years, the month closed with growth. Often, it was in November that rallies began and continued until the end of the year. That’s not a guarantee, but the statistics are clearly on the bulls’ side.
A typical November for Bitcoin. Source: bitcoinmonthlyreturn
In strong periods, this effect was especially noticeable. In 2013, Bitcoin rose by about 49% in November, and in 2017 — by more than 54%, nearly doubling in price within a few weeks before the December highs.
In post-halving cycles — for example, in 2016 and 2020 — November also tended to be green: back then, Bitcoin grew between 6% and 43%. This dynamic is explained by a combination of high demand and a shrinking inflow of new coins into the market after the halving.
But November does not always bring growth. In 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin fell by 36% and 16%, respectively. In 2018, the market was going through fading euphoria after the late-2017 all-time high and was entering a full-scale bear market. In 2022, the drop was caused by a crisis of trust in the crypto industry after the sudden collapse of a major player, which triggered panic and mass selling.
The main takeaway: November is almost always a volatile month for Bitcoin. If the backdrop is positive, it often amplifies growth. If the backdrop is crisis-driven, it amplifies the decline.
From the Point of View of Cycle Theory
To understand where the market is now, it’s important to remember the halving. The halving is an event in the Bitcoin network when the block reward paid to miners is cut in half. After that, the inflow of new coins into circulation slows down, scarcity increases, and historically that has acted as fuel for price growth.
The most recent halving took place in spring 2024. In previous cycles, Bitcoin’s price peak usually formed 15–18 months after the halving. If we apply that to the current situation, we get a window for the cycle’s peak roughly from July to November 2025. We are now at the very end of that window.
Comparison of Bitcoin’s behavior in post-halving cycles. Source: bitcoincyclescomparison
In August, Bitcoin already made an attempt to rally — the price climbed to around $124,000. After that, the high was barely updated on October 6, but the new top turned out to be only $2,000 higher.
Afterward, the market didn’t move into a full crash but shifted into a sideways trend and mild correction. The price remains elevated, but each new upward impulse is getting harder.
Historically, November often became the moment of the “last push,” after which the market either set a new peak and then cooled off or immediately slid into a correction.
In other words, November 2025, from the standpoint of cyclicality, is the resolution. If the market in the coming weeks cannot confidently set a new high, then the probability that the cycle’s top is already behind us will rise sharply.
Bitcoin’s Position Heading Into November 2025
By late October, Bitcoin looks more stable than weak. After a mid-month drop, BTC found support in the $111,000–$112,000 zone and has since bounced. As of October 27, the price is holding around $115,000 and showing about 3% growth over the past seven days. This indicates that local buyers exist and are strong enough to buy the dips.
The market has become more active: trading volumes are up, and participants are again trying to buy on pullbacks rather than exit positions. This is an important psychological shift — the crowd doesn’t yet believe the cycle is over, and that belief alone supports the price.
The $116,000–$117,000 area is now acting as resistance. Here, those who bought before the bounce are taking profits. If Bitcoin manages to consolidate above $116,500, it will have a chance to test $120,000–$122,000 again. That’s the range after which talk of a new all-time high will instantly return.
But it’s important to note the downside. If the next growth attempt fails and the price drops below $115,000 with acceleration, the market could easily revisit the $112,000–$113,000 area. In other words, the market hasn’t broken down — but it also hasn’t proven it’s ready for a new upward leg.
Overall, the picture heading into November is cautiously bullish. Buyers still hold the initiative, but they need confirmation in the form of resistance breakouts.
The State of Bitcoin Reserves on Exchanges
One of the strongest arguments in favor of a bullish scenario is the supply of coins on exchanges. According to analytical platforms, Bitcoin balances on centralized exchanges keep declining and have already fallen below 2.4 million BTC. This is one of the lowest levels in recent years. Since the start of the year, exchange reserves have shrunk by more than 20%.
Bitcoin reserves on crypto exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant
Why this matters: the fewer coins stored on exchanges, the less immediate readiness investors have to sell. It’s like a product slowly disappearing from store shelves — even with stable demand, the price typically doesn’t fall and often rises over time.
Falling reserves also mean that a significant portion of holders are moving BTC into long-term storage (cold wallets). This behavior is typical of phases when investors believe that the growth potential hasn’t yet been exhausted.
At the same time, the price holds around $115,000 without aggressive buying pressure from large new inflows of capital. That means the market is being supported not by external injections but by a simple lack of sellers. That’s a strong signal: no one is exiting positions en masse, and players are willing to wait and see what November brings.
External Factors and Events Affecting the Market
By late October, the crypto market got a breather thanks to easing tensions between the U.S. and China. After signals that both sides were ready to soften trade restrictions, market participants interpreted this as a reduction in the risk of a new tariff war. On that news, Bitcoin rose by about 2% and held above $115,000. This is an important moment: the price reacted not to internal crypto factors but to geopolitics.
But the main intrigue isn’t in the past week — it’s in the coming days. On Wednesday, October 29, the U.S. Federal Reserve will hold its meeting. The market expects the Fed to cut the key rate by 0.25%. What matters is not just the cut itself but also the tone of Jerome Powell’s comments. If he signals that the regulator is ready to continue easing and that the quantitative tightening program is nearing its end, this could fuel further Bitcoin growth. Cheap money and a dovish central bank almost always boost interest in risk assets.
If Powell instead takes a tough stance — for example, saying that the market has relaxed too early and that inflation risks remain high — it could quickly cool sentiment. In that case, Bitcoin would remain sensitive to corrections in the U.S. stock market and simply wouldn’t receive the impulse it’s now counting on.
Around the same dates, a personal meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping is scheduled at the APEC summit. This is essentially a two-way trigger. If both sides indicate a move toward reducing mutual restrictions and de-escalation, demand for protective assets like Bitcoin may temporarily decline. If instead the risk of escalation increases (for example, around tariffs or technology supply chains), Bitcoin may again start acting as a defensive asset.
An additional backdrop is the earnings season for major U.S. tech companies: Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta are reporting their quarterly results. Tech stocks and Bitcoin are currently trading on similar sentiment: if investors are still willing to take risk in tech, they’re also generally willing to take risk in crypto. Weak reports could hit all risk assets at once.
And there’s another problem weighing on sentiment: the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has already lasted nearly a month. A prolonged governance crisis always pushes some investors toward assets that don’t depend on government decisions. In this narrative, Bitcoin looks like a convenient refuge: it can’t be frozen by decree and can’t be devalued by emergency money printing.
The bottom line: early November coincides with a moment when economics, politics, and crypto are directly intertwined. It’s a rare concentration of triggers within a short timeframe.
Conclusion
Bitcoin enters November 2025 in a position of patient strength. It’s neither euphoria nor panic. There are few coins on exchanges, few sellers, and major holders are in no hurry to take profits. This creates a favorable backdrop: any additional fuel can quickly push the price higher.
The technical picture also favors the bulls. The price is holding around $115,000, the bounce from $111,000–$112,000 looks solid, and in a positive scenario, the market may try to move toward $120,000–$122,000. A stable move in this range will instantly revive talk of a new all-time high and the idea that the cycle’s top hasn’t yet been reached.
But here’s the key point: the market is now highly dependent on external decisions. The Fed meeting on October 29 is the crucial event that will set the tone for all of November. A dovish stance and a clear signal of rate cuts could give Bitcoin one more push within the current cycle. A hawkish stance, on the other hand, could cool risk appetite and return the price to its support levels.
Simply put, November will be a test: it will either be the final push to the peak of the cycle or the beginning of a long pause after a year and a half of growth. That’s why the coming days are so important for everyone holding BTC or planning to enter.
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Disclaimer: The material in this article is not financial or investment advice. Everything stated here reflects the author's personal view and should not be treated as a recommendation to trade or invest. We make no warranties regarding the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information presented. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and can move unpredictably. Before committing any funds, every investor, trader or crypto user should study several independent sources and check the regulations that apply in their own jurisdiction.