Early October lived up to investors’ hopes. BTC not only resumed its rise but also set a new all-time high.
Here’s what is happening with Bitcoin and whether there’s hope for the bull run to continue.
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What happened
On October 5, 2025, Bitcoin set a new all-time high at $125,556. The previous peak was recorded on August 14 at $124,443.
Immediately after setting the high on October 5, BTC entered a correction. At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency is trading at $123,504.
Bitcoin chart. Source: TradingView
Following BTC, the entire crypto market turned “green.” Sentiment improved as well. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index moved back into the “green” zone. At the time of writing, the metric stands at 71. At the moment of the new high, it reached 74. These changes indicate a greater willingness by investors to take risks to buy cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index. Source: alternative.me
The Bitcoin balance on crypto exchanges continued to update multi-year lows. This dynamic shows that despite BTC’s rise, investors are not ready to part with their coins. A continuation of this trend could lead to a shortage of bitcoins on exchanges, which in turn should be viewed as an important factor supporting further growth.
Bitcoin exchange balance. Source: cryptoquant
Why Bitcoin rose
There are several reasons for BTC’s rise. Let’s look at them.
- Companies are buying BTC. BitcoinTreasuries estimated that over the past week companies bought more than 6.7 thousand bitcoins.
- ETF inflows. Inflows into exchange-traded BTC funds last week totaled $3.24 billion.
- Shutdown. The halt in U.S. government operations could have spurred interest in safe-haven assets. Bitcoin is called “digital gold.” During periods of geopolitical instability, investors may consider BTC a defensive asset.
- General positive seasonality. As observations show, October is a period of growth for the crypto market. The second month of autumn is often positive for BTC. Investor sentiment, after waiting for a rally, may be one of the key drivers of Bitcoin’s rise.
- Expectations of further Fed rate cuts. During a shutdown, U.S. regulators stop publishing data. Therefore, if by October 29 (the date of the next rate decision) publications have not resumed, the Fed will have to act almost blindly. The data already available to the regulator suggest that the Fed will go for a cut. At the time of writing, more than 95% of market participants believe in such an outcome. For the crypto industry, expectations of lower rates are a positive factor.
Fed rate decision outlook for October 2025. Source: CME
There is another factor in BTC’s rise that optimists prefer not to mention — market manipulation. Market participants believe that behind the coin’s pump — as well as the start of its correction — are large trading platforms such as Binance. Crypto exchanges can profit from pumps and dumps: in the first case they knock short sellers out of the market, in the second — long traders. Forced liquidations help move the cryptocurrency’s price in the direction a trading platform needs. All that’s required to profit from such manipulation is to place the right bet — on a rise or on a fall.
Is there a chance the bull run continues?
Analyst Doctor Profit warns that the market is in the final phase of the bull cycle, and the coming weeks could become a turning point for Bitcoin and equity indexes. In his view, the current rise is a distribution zone in which big players are selling assets to the crowd that doesn’t notice mounting risks. His target sell range is $115–125k per BTC, which he calls the “banana zone” — a sideways area before a possible reversal.
Chart markup and Bitcoin forecast by Doctor Profit
The analyst’s main concern is the repo market — an important indicator of dollar liquidity. Reverse repo operations have fallen from a $2.2 trillion peak to mere billions. According to him, the disappearance of this “safety cushion” historically preceded the crises of 2018, 2019, and 2023. If liquidity keeps shrinking, the Fed may be forced to intervene, but it will be too late.
Doctor Profit devotes particular attention to the vulnerability of the U.S. banking sector. The banking system holds about $395 billion in unrealized losses. In his opinion, the Fed will not start new quantitative easing until a controlled crisis occurs.
In the crypto market, he sees a repeat of 2022 patterns. Despite record ETF inflows, liquidity is contracting beneath the surface, while FOMO and leveraged positioning are peaking.
In his view, a bearish divergence is forming on the charts, similar to the one that preceded the 2021 top. The analyst has sold all his crypto assets and opened short positions in the $115–125k range, expecting a strong correction. He allows for a short-term move above $125k but considers it a false breakout before a reversal.
Many other crypto analysts also see signs of an imminent reversal on the cryptocurrency’s chart and warn of a possible plunge.
Still, there are also those who believe BTC’s bull run has a chance to continue. Optimists think Bitcoin could set a new ATH near $170,000 as early as November.
Recall that from the perspective of cycle theory, BTC’s cyclical maximum may be recorded in October. At the same time, active manipulation by crypto exchanges makes forecasting very difficult.
Conclusions
At the time of writing, sales by crypto exchanges of the most capitalized cryptocurrencies are being recorded. Large trading platforms are actively manipulating the market, complicating forecasting.
Unfortunately, there is every reason to assume that the main driving force behind BTC’s early-October pump was market manipulation. Bitcoin’s rise was supported by a positive news backdrop and expectations of the traditional October bull run.
At the same time, there is a high probability that the bull run will be “frozen” amid the sell-off triggered by trading platforms. Therefore, it will be difficult for Bitcoin to update its all-time high again.
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