In August, U.S. regulators will publish a number of reports that could determine the fate of Bitcoin and the entire crypto market for the coming months. The crypto community’s attention is focused on the upcoming CPI report and other scheduled releases.
Here’s which data crypto investors should watch for in August, and how the consumer price index report could influence Bitcoin’s future.
CPI on August 12
The release of the U.S. core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July is scheduled for August 12, 2025. The September decision by the Federal Reserve on the key interest rate will largely depend on it.
First, let’s recall what CPI is. The Consumer Price Index measures how the average level of prices for a “consumer basket” changes over time. It includes goods and services most frequently purchased by households.
CPI can be compared to an inflation “barometer.” If the index rises, it means everything in the country is getting more expensive. Such changes indicate the need for measures to fight inflation.
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What’s happening with inflation in the U.S. now
The June reading showed CPI at 2.7% versus a 2.6% forecast. In May, the result was better—2.4%. The changes in the index indicate rising inflation in the U.S.
U.S. CPI. Source: Investing
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell believes that the uptick in inflation stems from the tariff war launched by Trump. Higher import duties in the U.S. drive up the cost of certain categories of goods. According to Powell, if not for Trump’s tariffs, the Fed would have already begun cutting the key interest rate.
The U.S. president has for months demands that the regulator start lowering rates. He says Powell’s refusal to comply negatively affects the American economy. Despite Trump’s threats, on July 30 a decision was made to keep the rate unchanged.
The U.S. has already concluded trade agreements with most major partners. Yet periodic news of fresh hardline deals knocks markets off balance. Therefore, in addition to CPI data, it’s important to monitor Trump’s trade war.
Important! You should also pay attention to rising tensions in U.S.–Russia relations. In early August, following careless remarks by former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev about the possible use of nuclear weapons, Trump ordered nuclear submarines deployed toward Russia’s shores. Although, at the time of writing, the escalation had not continued, many market participants are watching closely. Any flare-up could deal a painful blow to both traditional financial markets and crypto.
How the August 12 CPI data could change the picture
Keeping CPI at the same level—or a decline—could be a positive signal for the Fed. The regulator will factor in the pace of inflation when making its September rate decision.
At the time of writing, the market remains optimistic. The odds of a September Fed rate cut are estimated at over 90%. Recall that ahead of the July meeting, most expected the rate to be kept unchanged—and that’s exactly what happened.
Forecast of the Fed’s September rate decision. Source: cmegroup
Positive CPI data on August 12 could strengthen investors’ belief that in September the Fed—after a long pause—will cut the key interest rate. A negative report, by contrast, could push such a decision further out.
What all this means for the crypto market
The crypto market traditionally rallies during periods when the Fed is cutting rates. This is because lower yields on traditional dollar instruments increase the investment appeal of high-risk assets.
The blue line shows changes in the Fed’s key interest rate. The multicolor line shows Bitcoin’s behavior against Fed rate changes. Sources: TradingView, tradingeconomics
It follows that crypto investors are interested in a report indicating slower CPI. Such results would signal to the Fed that inflation is cooling and would speed the regulator’s move toward rate cuts.
Conclusions
Leading up to August 12, market volatility may rise. The CPI results will determine the direction BTC takes next. Slowing inflation could bring the Fed closer to cutting the key rate. The next meeting of the regulator is in September. Negative CPI data, on the other hand, could push the long-awaited rate cut for crypto investors further away.
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