Bitcoin’s weakness at the start of September gave investors reason to doubt that the crypto market’s bull run still has legs.
We explain why many crypto investors believe BTC no longer has the strength to resume growth and which signals suggest the opposite.
Track the Bitcoin rate on Quickex.
What’s wrong with bitcoin
After updating its all-time high on August 14, 2025 at $124,457, bitcoin began a correction. At the time of writing, its depth reaches 10%.
Bitcoin chart. Source: CoinMarketCap
Bitcoin’s weakness has split the crypto community into two camps:
- some are sure the market is going through a healthy correction after the new high;
- others are convinced the bull run is already over.
To understand the reasons that led to such a split of opinions, we need to examine BTC’s position in detail.
Let’s start with the positives. First, if you believe in bitcoin’s cyclicality theory, the cryptocurrency has not yet passed the time threshold for setting the cycle’s maximum. On average, it takes about a year and a half. The last halving occurred in April 2024. Therefore, if history repeats, a new cyclical high could be recorded in September–October 2025.
It’s also worth noting interest in crypto from institutional players. Large players continue to buy the coin. At the time of writing, institutions hold over 17.44% of the cryptocurrency’s supply.
Information on the number of bitcoins held by private and public companies and in countries’ reserves. The statistics include cryptocurrency locked under ETD. Source: bitbo.io
Optimists also point to a likely Federal Reserve key rate cut on September 17. At the time of writing, more than 90% of market participants are betting on that outcome. The change could increase the investment appeal of cryptocurrency by making traditional instruments less profitable.
Those who believe the bull run has ended, in turn, point to the strengthening outflow of funds from ETFs. Recall that at the start of 2024 the launch of spot ETFs in January 2024 became one of the main drivers of the bull run. Later, the market’s positive dynamics were supported by the victory of pro-crypto president Donald Trump in the U.S. elections.
Rising outflows from these instruments may indicate that large investors are interested in locking in profits.
Spot bitcoin ETF statistics. Source: coinglass
There is another negative nuance to bitcoin’s position, and it is related to Trump’s promises. The U.S. president signed an order to form a national cryptocurrency reserve. Many investors expected America to start buying bitcoins. In that case, the U.S. could have become the largest buyer of cryptocurrency, which would have supported the market’s growth.
In reality, it turned out that the U.S. administration plans to replenish the reserve exclusively with confiscated cryptocurrency. The news hit the crypto community’s expectations hard.
Is there a chance the bull run continues
A likely Fed rate cut may indeed already be priced into cryptocurrency. One can assume that the positive effect of the upcoming shift was largely smoothed by the U.S. statement that the country will not become the largest buyer of bitcoins.
Despite the negatives, there are positive signals as well. For example, the number of bitcoins on crypto exchange reserves continues to decline. This state of the metric suggests the market is still in shortage—and it continues to grow. The number of available coins isn’t keeping up with demand, which means investor interest remains sufficient to support a potential recovery and even a move to new highs.
Bitcoin reserves on crypto exchanges. Source: Cryptoquant
But there is also a bigger problem. Bitcoin does not have much time. Historically, September often becomes one of the most unfavorable months for the coin. Judging by the cryptocurrency’s behavior, history is repeating.
Bottom line
Bitcoin has found itself in a precarious position. On the one hand, timing points to the likelihood of a final push before setting the cyclical maximum; on the other, ETF selling and investors’ loss of faith in the continuation of the bull run are weighing on the cryptocurrency’s price.
One might assume that if bitcoin manages to recover to August’s maximum by the end of the month, the market could see a new high in October–November. If negative sentiment continues to dominate, August 14, 2025 will go down in history as the day BTC set its post-April 2024 halving high.
You can quickly exchange Bitcoin for USDT at the best rate in the Quickex exchanger.