Prominent Chinese Bitcoin miner and BTC.top founder Jiang Zhuo’er has issued a bold forecast, predicting that Bitcoin’s current bear market will reach its bottom between October and December 2026, with prices likely settling in the $42,000 to $44,000 range.
The prediction, shared widely on social media, is gaining significant attention as Bitcoin continues to retest key support levels amid weakening market sentiment and renewed pressure on MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock.
Jiang’s Analysis: mNAV as a Leading Indicator
Jiang bases his outlook heavily on MicroStrategy’s modified Net Asset Value (mNAV) ratio, which has recently fallen to 0.72 — dangerously close to the previous cycle low of 0.7 recorded in May 2022. He views mNAV as a reliable leading indicator that typically bottoms out about six months before Bitcoin’s price does.
According to Jiang, the current depressed mNAV, combined with broader negative market sentiment and recent events such as the depegging of certain structured products, signals that the market has entered the final capitulation phase of this cycle.
Using a combination of the classic four-year halving cycle and a diminishing volatility model, he projects the ultimate low to arrive in Q4 2026.
Current Market Context
As of June 25, Bitcoin is trading near important technical support levels, while MicroStrategy shares — often seen as a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin — continue to face selling pressure.
Jiang’s near-term trading stance remains defensive: he is primarily selling spot Bitcoin and maintaining short positions, planning to switch to aggressive buying only after the expected bottom is confirmed.
Voices from Other Major Influencers
Jiang is not alone in his bearish outlook for the short-to-medium term:
- Benjamin Cowen has also highlighted October 2026 as a probable bottoming window based on historical cycle patterns.
- Willy Woo and analysts at CryptoQuant point to similar Q4 2026 timelines, citing on-chain metrics and MVRV Z-Score behavior.
- More optimistic voices, such as Tom Lee and certain institutional desks, maintain higher targets for late 2026 or 2027, but even they acknowledge near-term risks.
China’s Crypto Influence and Market Sentiment
As one of China’s most respected Bitcoin veterans, Jiang’s forecast carries particular weight in both Chinese and global communities. Despite China’s strict domestic crypto bans, Chinese miners, analysts, and capital continue to exert outsized influence on global Bitcoin narratives and price action.
The current environment reflects classic late-bear market psychology: fading retail enthusiasm, institutional caution, and leveraged players being squeezed. Many analysts believe this period of consolidation and capitulation is necessary before the next major bull cycle can begin in earnest.
At Quickex, we see Jiang’s prediction as a valuable data point in an uncertain market. While no forecast is guaranteed, his emphasis on MicroStrategy’s mNAV as a leading signal provides an interesting framework for monitoring market health.
Whether Bitcoin bottoms in the low $40,000s or finds support higher will ultimately be decided by macroeconomic conditions, institutional adoption rates, and global liquidity. For now, caution remains the dominant theme.
The coming months will be critical. Will we see the final washout Jiang anticipates, or will stronger institutional buying emerge earlier than expected?