On September 17, 2025, one of the most important events for crypto investors will take place. On that day, the Fed will hold its next meeting on the policy rate. Unlike previous meetings, September 17 could become the date that determines the future of the crypto industry.
Here’s why the crypto community is focused on this date and which scenarios you should be ready for.
Track how the Bitcoin price reacts to the news with Quickex.
Rate forecasts
The Fed began the long-awaited cycle of cutting the policy rate a year ago—in September 2024. The move was accompanied by a sharp rally in the crypto market. When the Fed lowers its key rate, cryptocurrencies become more attractive to investors because the yields on traditional instruments decline. Market participants are forced to look for alternatives, and many of them turn to the crypto market.
The cutting cycle stopped in December 2024. Since then, at every meeting the Fed has kept the rate unchanged. The reason is fears of rising inflation fueled by Trump’s “tariff wars” and other presidential initiatives.
How the Fed’s policy rate changed over the last 5 years. Source: tradingeconomics
The U.S. president repeatedly pushed for lower rates and, by August 2025, judging by Powell’s speech rhetoric at the Jackson Hole symposium, he appeared to have pressured the regulator successfully.
At the time of writing, the odds of a Fed rate cut on September 17 are estimated at 92%.
September forecast for the Fed’s policy rate. Source: CME
Unfortunately, this time the crypto market may not rally on the news of a rate cut.
How the Fed’s rate decision could affect Bitcoin
Bloomberg draws attention to a warning from JPMorgan. According to the bank, the expected Fed rate cut on September 17 could trigger a “sell the news” reaction—profit-taking and a decline in the stock market.
Despite the roughly 30% gain in the S&P 500 since April, risks remain—related to inflation, a soft labor market, tariffs, and the seasonally weak September. The bank advises hedging, although historically, rate cuts outside recessions often support market gains.
The crypto market often mirrors moves in equities because stocks are also risk assets. A stock-market sell-off on the rate news could therefore pressure the crypto industry as well.
Analysts believe the potential rate cut is already priced into risk assets. Therefore, even if the forecast materializes on September 17, it could spark a crypto sell-off—as the most bullish expectations would be behind us.
That said, some market participants believe a new bull run will inevitably follow the Fed’s rate cut. Some investors think the decision will be the trigger that sends Bitcoin into a parabolic advance.
Among the optimists is analyst Quentin Francos, who argues the crypto market cannot help but rise on the rate-cut news, at least because money will flow into crypto from traditional instruments.
Wrapping up
September 17 may fail to meet the crypto community’s expectations. Unfortunately, markets often move opposite to the consensus—and this time may be no different.
The point is that the upcoming Fed cut may already be priced into Bitcoin. In that case, September 17 could end up not as the day crypto goes parabolic, but as a painful slap in the face for investors. Such events often lead to asset sell-offs.
A great BTC-to-USDT exchange rate—on Quickex.