All the attention of the crypto community is focused on the Fed’s rate decision, which will be published on September 17. Ahead of the date, regulators will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The Fed’s decision depends on the results it contains.
We explain what CPI is, when to expect the fresh report, and how it could affect the regulator’s decision on the key interest rate.
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September 11 is an important day
On this day, the U.S. will publish a set of data that will reflect the current level of inflation in the country. Based on it, the Fed will make its decision on the rate on September 17. Therefore, CPI data should be monitored closely. Here are the specific reports that will be released on September 11:
- Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (m/m) (August).
- Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (y/y) (August).
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) (y/y) (August).
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) (m/m) (August).
Also on September 11, the number of initial jobless claims will be published.
How to read the CPI report
Let’s look at what exactly is behind the report names:
- Core CPI Index (m/m) (August). Shows how prices changed excluding food and energy compared to the previous month. Reflects short-term inflation dynamics, adjusted for the most volatile factors.
- Core Consumer CPI (y/y) (August). Compares the level of core prices with the same month of the previous year. Considered a more stable indicator of inflation trends and is a key measure for the Fed.
- CPI (y/y) (August). Reflects overall inflation, including food and energy, in annual terms. The Fed focuses more on the core measure, but this one is also considered for the broader picture.
- CPI (m/m) (August). Measures the change in overall inflation compared to the previous month. This figure can vary significantly depending on seasonal factors and energy prices.
The number of initial jobless claims is an additional indicator of the labor market’s health. An increase points to rising unemployment and a weakening economy; a decrease signals the opposite.
What each outcome means for the crypto market
The Fed will lean toward cutting the key interest rate if inflation shows a cooling trend and there are no sharp spikes that could fuel inflation expectations.
An increase in jobless claims points to a cooling economy, which can also support the case for easing policy.
What Fed decision the market expects
The probability of a rate cut in September 2025 is estimated at 91.7% by market participants at the time of writing.
Fed rate decision forecast for September 17. Source: cmegroup
Recall that the crypto community expects a rate cut, since in a search for yield, many investors turn their attention to crypto.
However, this time, as the analyst believes DoctorProfit, the forecast may fail. In his view, the market is fragile. A mere pause in cutting the key rate, and even the forecast playing out, could have supported a bull run.
Doctor Profit noted that under the growth scenario for Bitcoin, the potential positive impact of the Fed’s decision is already priced into the coin.
Conclusions
The upcoming release of inflation and labor-market reports on September 11 may serve as an additional argument for the Fed to ease policy.
Within the crypto community, a rate cut is traditionally seen as a bullish signal, but many participants believe the effect is already priced into Bitcoin.
In any case, a Fed rate cut is better for crypto than no change.
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