July 15, 2025, may prove a turning point for the crypto industry. On that day, the U.S. will publish the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI). The data could determine the Federal Reserve’s next steps—the regulator whose decisions the crypto community watches closely.
Quickex’s editorial team has gathered all the important information about the CPI and the potential reaction of the crypto market to the release of the fresh data.
What is the CPI
The Core Consumer Price Index is a metric that tracks price fluctuations in a consumer basket. Its composition can change depending on the country and consumer preferences. At the same time, the role of the index remains the same—to monitor changes in spending on basic products.
Rising CPI indicates that the country is facing inflation issues. One of the regulator’s main tools to combat it is raising the interest rate.
CPI data allow you to assess the level of inflation in the country and forecast the Fed’s potential decisions on the key rate. Here’s how the assessment works:
- Rising CPI — signs of inflation. Negative data push back the transition to lowering the key interest rate.
- Falling CPI — favorable inflation data. In this case, the regulator may consider lowering the key interest rate, as there are no inflationary risks.
Track how the Bitcoin price will react to the CPI data alongside Quickex
How the CPI can affect crypto
CPI data for June 15, 2025, could be decisive in the U.S. Fed’s decision on the key interest rate. Let’s break down why this matters.
The key interest rate is an indicator that, roughly speaking, sets the cost of money in the economy. The higher the rate, the more expensive loans are for banks and the higher the interest on loans and other financial instruments.
A high rate benefits those who earn on deposit interest. At the same time, such a situation is detrimental to business. The economy slows down because not everyone can take a loan to develop their business or other needs.
A rate cut, on the other hand, can become an incentive for accelerating the economy. For this reason, the U.S. president has been pressing the Fed for months, demanding that the regulator lower the rate as soon as possible.
Current CPI trends and forecasts
U.S. regulators publish consumer basket cost data every month. In June, the CPI showed a slight increase. At the same time, the overall trend indicates a gradual decline in the metric.
In June, CPI stood at 2.4%, which was 0.1% below the forecast.
CPI USA. Source: Investing
One of the drivers of inflation growth in the U.S. was Trump’s tariff war. As of writing, geopolitical tensions have eased, despite the politician continuing to pressure other countries’ regulators. It can be assumed that the market has already recovered from the shocks. At the same time, it is not worth completely ruling out the possibility of a second wave of tension, since the U.S. has not yet settled trade relations with many countries.
Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, has repeatedly spoken out against cutting the key interest rate at this time, largely because the U.S. is in a state of trade war. Fresh CPI data may break the banker’s resistance and force the Fed to lower the rate after all.
Reuters do not rule out a 0.3% CPI rise due to Trump’s tariff war. MarketWatch analysts give a similar forecast. The consensus forecast, according to TradingEconomics, also suggests a CPI increase.
Most market participants consider a CPI rise the base scenario. If the forecasts come true, the Fed can once again refuse to lower the key interest rate.
Not all bad news
A slight CPI rise amid Trump’s tariff war may signal a delay in cutting the key interest rate. At the time of writing, most market participants expect the Fed to take this step in September 2025. Here’s why.
Fed rate-cut forecast for September 2025. Source: CME Group
Ahead of the fresh CPI data release, Bitcoin is hitting new highs. The entire crypto market is following with positive movement. Investors reacted to the results of the FOMC meeting, the minutes of which were published on July 9. They speak of the likelihood of at least one and at most two key rate cuts by year-end. Given the probable release of less-than-ideal CPI results in July 2025, many crypto community members now expect the first rate cuts in September. Positive changes, as often happens in crypto, have already started to be priced into cryptocurrency valuations.
Conclusions
Despite expectations of a CPI rise, the crypto market is showing positive dynamics. This happens because many crypto community members are confident in the imminent start of a new phase of Fed key rate cuts.
Recall that Quickex’s editorial team previously gathered in one overview the forecasts from crypto community participants on Bitcoin following its ATH update.