The night of November 4–5, 2025 turned out to be difficult for the crypto community. For the first time since summer, bitcoin “dived” below $100,000, making many investors seriously worry about the market shifting into a crypto winter.
We explain why bitcoin fell, what the market crash led to, and whether there is hope for a recovery.
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What Happened
On the night of November 4–5, 2025, bitcoin fell below $100,000 for the first time since the summer of 2025. According to CoinMarketCap, the 24-hour low for the cryptocurrency was recorded at $98,962. The drop began on November 3. At one point its depth exceeded 10%.
Bitcoin chart. Source: TradingView.
As of the time of writing this review, BTC is trading 18.76% below the all-time high, which was recorded on October 6 at $126,198.
Why Bitcoin Fell
Bitcoin’s decline was the result of a combination of factors. Let’s look at them.
Institutions Moved Into the Shadows
According to 10x Research, long-term investors sold about 400,000 BTC in a month — roughly $45 billion.
“We broke through key on-chain levels, and many found themselves at a loss, forced to close positions,” noted Head of Research Markus Thielen.
Large holders controlling from 1,000 to 10,000 BTC reduced their activity, leaving the market without its usual support.
At the same time, for the first time in seven months, net institutional purchases fell below the volume of daily issuance — an alarming signal for a market used to steady capital inflows.
Institutional purchase volumes vs. bitcoin mining pace. Source: Capriole Invest.
Pressure From Funds and Macro
Over the past four weeks, cumulative outflows from bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs exceeded $1.5 billion, including $403 million from iShares Bitcoin Trust and $68 million from Grayscale GBTC. Correlation with the Nasdaq 100 rose to 0.75: when the index falls by more than 1.5%, bitcoin in most cases mirrors the move.
The backdrop was worsened by the results of the Fed meeting: although the rate was cut by 25 bps, uncertainty around U.S. budget policy and the risk of a shutdown outweighed the easing effect. This prompted investors to temporarily step away from risk assets.
“Rotten October” and the Liquidation Effect
K33 analyst Vetle Lunde called October “Rotten October,” noting that the past 30 days were bitcoin’s worst relative to the Nasdaq since mid-2024. According to him, the crypto market is dealing with the aftermath of the largest forced deleveraging in history — around $20 billion in liquidations on October 10.
“The fear sparked by this event, combined with selling by long-term holders, intensified market weakness as buyers prefer to wait it out,” he noted.
By Lunde’s estimate, bitcoin is now at a pivotal inflection point — roughly 25 days after the October 10 crash. His derivatives-cycle model shows a mix of signs of a local bottom and the early phase of a downtrend. He points out that more than 319,000 BTC that had been held for six to twelve months were activated in October — some of these coins were sold to lock in profits.
Nevertheless, Lunde believes the current decline looks more like a consolidation phase after large-scale liquidations rather than the start of a new bearish cycle.
“We expect the selling pressure from old holders to ease and the effects of liquidations to start fading. Conditions may even out for a potential upward reversal once supply is exhausted and risk appetite returns,” the analyst said.
Technical Signals and the Risk of Shifting into a Bear Phase
According to CryptoQuant, bitcoin fell below its 365-day moving average, which historically coincided with the start of bear phases — notably in 2022.
“This was the final confirmation of the start of a bear market,” noted Julio Moreno, the platform’s Head of Research.
Bitcoin relative to the 365-day moving average. Source: CryptoQuant.
Cointelegraph analysts add that the current 21% drop from the peak is “a normal bull-cycle flush, not the start of a crypto winter.” According to Andri Fauzan Ajiima of Bitrue, “this is only the fourth correction in the current bull cycle — a routine cleanup, not the start of a prolonged decline.”
At the same time, Glassnode analysts note that bitcoin’s price broke the key $100,000 level and is now moving toward the $98,000–$95,000 range, where a liquidation zone is concentrated. They also note that activity of long positions in perpetual futures has fallen 62% since August, indicating weakening speculative demand and growing caution.
Psychological Factor: Fear, FUD, and Whales
Amid the drop, rumors and panic intensified. Binance founder Changpeng Zhao urged market participants to keep a cool head:
“There’s a lot of random fear, uncertainty, and doubt in the market. People are feeling pain, anxiety, nervousness. Whales take advantage of this — they spread negativity and profit from it. Learn to verify information and check official sources.”
Diverging Forecasts: From “Bear Market” to a Buy Signal
Trader Doctor Profit is certain: “This is not a correction, but the start of a bear market.” He expects bitcoin to reach the $54,000–$60,000 range by fall 2026.
At the same time, Matt Hougan of Bitwise considers the current market state close to the final stage of sell-offs. In his view, “retail investors are in maximum despair, while institutions remain interested.” He allows for a recovery to $125,000–$130,000 by year-end and, under favorable conditions, even higher.
Analyst Vetle Lunde holds a similar view. According to him, expansionary monetary policy, potential access for cryptocurrencies to 401(k) retirement plans, and participation by the largest banks contradict the “four-year cycle peak” hypothesis.
“Buying in blood is a sensible strategy for patient long-term investors,” he concludes.
Despite the overall cooling of interest, some participants continue to actively accumulate bitcoin. According to CryptoQuant, addresses that buy and never sell acquired 375,000 BTC in a month — a record high for the entire observation period. On November 5 alone, they added 50,000 BTC, taking advantage of the dip below $100,000.
“While overall demand has weakened, that’s not the case for these investors,” analyst Darkfost noted.
Outlook
Bitcoin remains in a zone of uncertainty. On-chain data indicate a decline in speculative activity and burnout among short-term traders, while institutional funds and accumulating addresses are beginning to show renewed interest.
If levels around $98,000 hold under pressure, the market may shift into a consolidation phase. Otherwise, Doctor Profit’s forecast of a decline toward $60,000 could become the base case for late 2025.
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