Bitcoin started October by setting a new local high at $119,453 and holding above $118,000. That said, not everyone on the market believes the bears have finally capitulated.
The Quickex editorial team compiled the top reasons for Bitcoin’s rise in one review and added a “spoonful of tar” as a reminder of the market’s manipulative nature.
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Top Reasons for Bitcoin’s Rise in Early October
We can single out several reasons that led to the positive dynamics of the most capitalized cryptocurrency.
1. ETF inflows
In the U.S., spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to post record inflows. In just three days, $1.6 billion flowed in, $600 million of which went to BlackRock’s fund (IBIT). ETFs are becoming the main channel of institutional capital into the crypto market, reinforcing the uptrend.
Statistics of inflows and outflows in spot Bitcoin ETFs. Source: The Block
2. Shutdown
Bitcoin is rising in sync with gold, reflecting demand for safe-haven assets. An additional impulse came from the U.S. government shutdown that began on September 30. The halt in government operations caused equity indices to fall, bond yields to rise, and added pressure on the dollar.
During a shutdown, the publication of key economic data is disrupted, making the Fed’s forecasts harder and increasing market uncertainty. In such conditions, investors traditionally look for safe harbors. Gold renewed its all-time high, and Bitcoin drew additional interest as its digital analogue—available 24/7 even amid a political crisis.
3. Expectations of a key rate cut
Soft U.S. labor-market data and falling consumer confidence increase the likelihood of further cuts to the key rate. CME futures price in nearly a 99% probability of a 0.25% October cut. Cheap money traditionally pushes risk assets higher, including Bitcoin.
Forecast for the Fed’s October key rate decision. Source: CME
4. Historical seasonal factor — Uptober
The term Uptober emerged in the crypto community as a play on words—“up” and “October.” Traders began using it after Bitcoin delivered gains in October for many years. In crypto circles, Uptober has become a symbol of a strong start to Q4 and is traditionally seen as a bullish seasonal factor.
Over the past 12 years, October closed higher in 10 cases. The average October return was about 20%, and in November more than 40%. That’s why the arrival of Uptober boosts traders’ optimism and strengthens belief in the continuation of the bull trend.
5. Technical signals
A golden cross is forming on the charts—a signal that the uptrend may continue. The RSI is in overbought territory, but that’s typical of accelerated bullish phases. Analysts allow for a short-term pullback; however, the medium-term trend remains upward.
6. Bitcoin’s four-year cycle
Bitcoin traditionally moves within a four-year cycle, whose key event is the halving. After the April 2024 reward reduction for miners, the market entered a bullish phase. According to the cyclicality theory, Bitcoin’s all-time highs have historically been set roughly 12–18 months after a halving.
Comparison of Bitcoin’s behavior by cycles after the halving. Source: bitcoincyclescomparison
That’s why October 2025 is viewed as the last chance in this cycle to set a new absolute high. If the rally happens, it will confirm the pattern of past cycles: the peak arrives roughly a year and a half after the halving. If there’s no surge to new highs in October, the probability of the final top shifting to a later date will drop noticeably.
7. Altcoin rally
Following Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Dogecoin, Cardano, and other large coins jumped sharply. The market-wide rise points to fresh inflows and confirms investors’ bullish mood.
8. Tether issuance
The market has seen more than $2 billion worth of Tether issued. Additional issuance of the largest stablecoin increases liquidity and boosts buying activity across crypto.
What’s Off About Bitcoin’s Pump
Despite the optimism, there’s skepticism in the crypto community about the sustainability of the current rise.
First, the market is drawing attention to the $2 billion Tether issuance. Critics argue that it’s these funds that are pushing Bitcoin’s price higher, and that the rise is driven not by organic demand but by artificial liquidity. The situation is compared to a game of musical chairs, where someone will be left without a seat when the music stops.
Second, traders suggest that the current advance may be part of a planned pump. The market is first lifted to strengthen faith in Uptober, and then a pullback follows. Some participants forecast that in mid-October Bitcoin could drop to $106,000 and Ethereum to $3,800 or lower. That would trigger liquidations of long positions and flush out retail investors.
The scenario looks as follows:
- by October 15–20 — a correction and panic; many decide Uptober is “canceled”;
- an increase in shorts and growing confidence among the “bears”;
- late October — a sudden reversal and the start of parabolic growth;
- the month closes with a big gain and Q4 kicks off targeting $150,000–$180,000 for Bitcoin, $8,000–$12,000 for Ethereum, and a powerful altseason where Solana, Cardano, and other altcoins could show 10–50× moves.
Third, special attention should be paid to another round of manipulation by major players. Market participants have noted that Binance is actively buying Bitcoins and Ethereum. The activity of a giant like this may be yet another non-obvious, shadow driver of the bull run.
Thus, part of the community believes the current pump is preparation for shaking out weak hands. However, over the long term many remain bullish, expecting Q4 to be the time of a true rally.
Summing Up
Early October gave Bitcoin a long-awaited impulse, pushing it to $119,453. The rise was influenced by ETF inflows, the U.S. shutdown, expectations of a key-rate cut, and the seasonal Uptober factor. Additional liquidity came from Tether issuance, while altcoins supported the overall positive backdrop.
Yet alongside bullish signals, doubts remain about the rise’s organic nature: some traders see a planned pump with a possible mid-month pullback.
In any case, October remains a key month in the cycle after the 2024 halving, and it’s precisely now that the market is deciding whether Bitcoin can set a new absolute high—or will have to wait for a new phase to make the leap.
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