The U.S. is facing another shutdown. Members of the crypto community fear that the halt in government operations could negatively affect digital assets.
The Quickex editorial team looked into analysts’ forecasts and why the shutdown could, on the contrary, become a catalyst for a new BTC rally.
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What happened
In the U.S., government operations have shut down again. This is the first such crisis since 2019.
The shutdown began on Tuesday, September 30, 2025. The reason: the Senate, where Republicans hold the majority, twice failed to pass a stopgap funding bill. Democrats sought to tie it to an extension of health-care tax credits for millions of Americans, but the sides failed to reach a compromise.
Markets reacted immediately:
- Dow Jones futures fell by more than 230 points (–0.5%);
- the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 lost 0.6% and 0.7%;
- bank stocks moved lower—JPMorgan and Wells Fargo slipped 0.5%, Citigroup nearly 0.9%; Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley also declined;
- the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 1.5 bps to 4.165%.
It’s not just investors who are feeling the impact. According to the Congressional Budget Office, about 750,000 federal employees have been furloughed. The Labor Department has largely halted operations, and the key September jobs report will not be released. Attention now shifts to data from the private firm ADP, which will temporarily stand in for the official statistics.
The political atmosphere has heated up. Donald Trump has already threatened mass firings. Analysts note that this time the standoff appears more hard-line: both Republicans and Democrats are using the shutdown as leverage. Even so, Evercore ISI experts believe the crisis could be brief: some Democrats have already voted for a compromise, and Republicans have signaled they are ready to negotiate.
The key question is how long this shutdown will last. If it drags on, not only government services but also the economic data crucial for Federal Reserve decisions will be disrupted. Without the jobs report, forecasting interest rates becomes much harder. Nevertheless, at the time of writing, more than 94% of the market still believes that, despite the shutdown, the Fed will deliver a second rate cut in October.
Fed rate decision probability for October. Source: CME
The 2025 shutdown has already hit equity markets, federal workers, and the data-reporting system. If a deal isn’t reached quickly, its fallout may prove much harsher than during previous crises.
Bitcoin during previous shutdowns
Over recent decades the U.S. has seen several notable shutdowns. They typically stemmed from disputes over the budget or policy riders, and their impact depended on how long they lasted. Here are the most notable episodes:
- 1995–1996 — two shutdowns under Bill Clinton, totaling nearly 27 days. Cause: a clash with Republicans over health-care funding and taxes.
- 2013 — 16 days under Barack Obama. Triggered by a dispute over funding the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare).
- 2018–2019 — the longest shutdown on record under Donald Trump, lasting 35 days. The dispute centered on funding for a wall on the U.S.–Mexico border.
There were shorter stoppages as well—for example, in 2018 (3 days) and in the early 1980s, when shutdowns lasted only a few days due purely to technical delays with the budget.
In most cases the government resumed operations after a compromise, and the economy quickly returned to normal. But the longer a crisis lasts, the more pronounced its effects—from delayed paychecks for federal employees to disruptions in the release of key statistics.
Here’s how Bitcoin reacted to past shutdowns:
- In 2013, Bitcoin initially plunged on the news but recovered to previous levels by the end of the shutdown and even moved higher. It then continued its positive trend and soon set a new all-time high.
- In 2018, Bitcoin fell and failed to recover by the end of the shutdown. The February government standoff also undermined BTC’s position.
- Late 2018–early 2019. Bitcoin reacted to the shutdown with a decline. A rebound was recorded only four months later.
Bitcoin’s reaction to previous shutdowns. Source: TradingView
How the 2025 shutdown could affect Bitcoin
Amid the shutdown, gold has set a new high. December futures on the Comex rose 0.5% on Wednesday morning to $3,891.4 per ounce. In September the metal gained about 10%, and since the start of the year it’s up 47%—growth rates last seen in the late 1970s.
Gold chart. Source: TradingView
The U.S. government’s troubles are weakening the dollar’s standing and making gold more attractive to foreign investors.
Recall that in the crypto community Bitcoin is widely regarded as “digital gold.” BTC shares with the precious metal a scarce supply. In 2025, Bitcoin stands on much firmer footing than in 2019, when many still saw crypto mainly as a vehicle for fraudulent schemes. Hence there is a chance BTC will rise amid the shutdown as investors move funds into “safe harbors.”
This view is held by analysts at The Kobeissi Letter. They argue that the shutdown will add pressure on the dollar and accelerate inflation. These shifts could push investors to seek alternative assets. With a deficit-ridden budget and Fed rate cuts, demand for defensive instruments such as gold and Bitcoin is likely to increase. In effect, the U.S. crisis creates an extra incentive to turn to cryptocurrencies as a store of value.
Members of the crypto community add that even during a shutdown and market instability, Bitcoin remains available 24/7. This, they say, makes crypto a strong competitor to traditional instruments—especially in turbulent periods.
Bottom line
Analysts converge on the view that the U.S. shutdown creates a favorable backdrop for Bitcoin. A weaker dollar, rising inflation risks, and uncertainty around fiscal policy are pushing investors to look for safe-haven assets.
Gold has already set a new all-time high. Now Bitcoin—ever more often seen as the precious metal’s “digital analogue”—may also get a fresh impulse to rise.
Unlike in years past, when crypto was viewed as niche and risky, today it is firmly embedded in institutional portfolios. Therefore, the 2025 shutdown may not only fail to harm BTC but even act as a trigger for a new rally.
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