XRP is a legend of the crypto market. After years of battling the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Ripple team managed to prove the legitimacy of crypto investing and that far from all coins are securities.
Now that the fight with the regulator is in the past, many investors are wondering what’s next for XRP. To answer this, the Quickex editorial team analyzed the cryptocurrency’s outlook. We’ve compiled the findings in this XRP forecast for October 2025.
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How XRP Enters October
Against the backdrop of its victory over the SEC, XRP moved up the ranks of the most capitalized cryptocurrencies. At the end of September, the coin holds an honorable fifth place.
XRP in the top 5 most capitalized cryptocurrencies. Source: CoinMarketCap
Let’s look at its price action. The cryptocurrency set a new all-time high on July 18, 2025, at $3.65. Before that, XRP’s peak was back in 2018. Regulatory pressure had prevented the coin from updating its maximum. Now, with the SEC battle behind it, the coin has a shot at a comeback.
We’ll also compare its behavior with Bitcoin’s price moves. In the chart below, you can see that at the beginning of 2024 the XRP–BTC correlation weakened significantly. While Bitcoin was rising on news of spot Bitcoin ETFs launching, Ripple’s cryptocurrency stagnated. The trigger came with the news of pro-crypto Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidential election. Many investors hoped that under his administration Ripple would resolve its conflict with the SEC. The forecasts came true. Therefore, by late 2024 the correlation between XRP and BTC recovered. Even so, Ripple’s coin trails Bitcoin in growth. If BTC is up 30% since the start of 2025, XRP is up only 11%.
Comparison of XRP and Bitcoin behavior (purple curve). Source: TradingView
ETF Factor
ETFs tied to the cryptocurrency have supported XRP’s price. Interest in the instrument has grown. For example, the XRPP by REX-Osprey fund, launched on September 18, 2025, broke trading-volume records—within the first hour and a half, volumes were five times higher than previous XRP products. The results point to strong institutional demand. However, the price didn’t follow. XRP lost 1% in a day, and the long-to-short ratio fell to a 30-day low. In other words, institutions are actively entering via ETFs, but spot and futures traders remain bearish.
Inflows and outflows in XRP on the spot market. Source: coinglass
Across the crypto community—especially on X and in analytical outlets—forecasts for XRP in October 2025 are mostly optimistic, with emphasis on the potential approval of a spot ETF from Bitwise, 21Shares, and others. The SEC’s decision on the instrument is expected in mid-to-late October. The emergence of a spot ETF for the cryptocurrency could spur price growth.
Projections vary widely—from conservative $2.5–$3 to ambitious $10–$50 and above—but most converge on $4–$7 in the base case.
What Else to Watch
XRP is an altcoin, which means it largely echoes the moves of the market’s flagship, Bitcoin. Therefore, when building a Ripple forecast, it’s important to rely on BTC’s condition. Here’s what to pay attention to:
October is the last month—per the cyclicality theory—when Bitcoin can set a cycle high. The current peak was recorded on August 14. Since then, the cryptocurrency has been falling.
On October 1, Trump’s new tariffs take effect. The crypto market dipped when they were announced. Introducing tariffs could accelerate inflation and push back the next Fed rate cut. That outcome is negative for BTC and the entire crypto market.
Bitcoin balances on exchanges keep declining, but whales are actively offloading coins. Judging by BTC’s drop since August, the bears outweigh the bulls.
Also, for XRP you should consider the “sell the news” factor. The project’s main event has already happened—the team defeated the SEC. There are no obvious positive triggers ahead, apart from a possible spot ETF launch. Even in that case, judging by how the market reacted to spot funds for other altcoins, it will be hard for XRP to reverse the bearish trend.
Bottom Line: XRP Forecast for October
XRP enters October 2025 in a contradictory position. On the one hand, the launch of the XRPP ETF confirmed strong institutional interest in the token, showing record trading volumes. On the other hand, spot and futures traders remain cautious: XRP lags Bitcoin’s performance, and bearish sentiment prevails.
A possible spot ETF approval could become the month’s key factor. The news could nudge XRP higher. However, without a strong external trigger, the coin risks getting stuck in a range or testing support levels. Therefore, XRP’s prospects in October depend on a combination of institutional demand, Bitcoin’s dynamics, and the market’s overall reaction to regulatory decisions.
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