The next Federal Reserve meeting on the key interest rate is scheduled for 30 July 2025. The regulator’s decision will largely determine the future behaviour of Bitcoin and the entire crypto market.
The Quickex editorial team has found out what market participants expect from the regulator this time: what the chances are of a rate cut this month. We explain how Bitcoin might respond to whatever decision the Fed makes.
The 30 July Fed Meeting: What We Know
The key interest rate is a metric that defines the cost of money in the economy. The higher it is, the more expensive it is for banks to borrow from the central bank and the less accessible loans become across the economy.
A high key rate is the tool the financial regulator uses to fight inflation. The flip side is an economic slowdown. Businesses can no longer borrow for expansion as easily, and individuals are more cautious about taking out loans and mortgages because they fear they will not be able to cope with the high interest rate.
A low key rate is possible only in periods when regulators have no concern about potential inflation growth. Amid the tariff war unleashed by U.S. President Donald Trump, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly postponed rate cuts, fearing the negative economic pressure of the president’s rhetoric.
According to CME, more than 93 % of market participants believe that during the 30 July meeting the Fed will leave the interest rate unchanged. The reason is the market’s expectations of not-so-favourable inflation data due on 15 July.
Fed rate decision forecast for 30 July 2025. Source: CME
At the same time, market participants are confident that the Fed will start cutting in September 2025. As of the moment of writing, more than 57 % of participants are betting on that outcome.
Fed rate decision forecast for 17 September 2025. Source: CME
The market’s optimism is largely linked to the FOMC meeting minutes of 9 July 2025, which show that a majority supports at least one Fed rate cut before year-end. A favourable scenario does not rule out two cuts.
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Possible Bitcoin Reaction
The crypto market usually prices in a Fed rate cut in advance. Investors know how the market is likely to react to the regulator’s decision and therefore try to stock up on assets early, for example when positive news foreshadows a move by the Fed towards lower rates. The key takeaway now is the market’s positive expectations of the September meeting. The July gathering may serve as a dress rehearsal for the upcoming cut.
This means that even the Fed keeping the key rate unchanged on 30 July is positive for the crypto market, because the result is expected and is viewed as another step towards lowering the metric. A decision in line with the forecast may therefore support BTC’s growth, while an earlier-than-expected cut could significantly accelerate its move to new highs.
Bottom Line
Effective efforts by U.S. regulators to bring down inflation leave the Fed with no choice. Powell will have to cut the key rate in the near future. The consensus forecast calls for a first cut in September, and the FOMC minutes point to the possibility of another cut before year-end.
The crypto market is already pricing the positive impact of a lower Fed rate into coin prices. Consequently, the regulator’s gradual transition to a rate-cutting phase supports BTC’s positive momentum.
Earlier, the Quickex editorial team published a long-term forecast for the second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum.